Big Al's Blog

Last year, really for the first time, I advised fantasy owners to eschew the tried and true “2 Stud RB” strategy and focus on drafting an elite QB early. That was partly because I saw a significant drop-off in RB projections after the top 3-4. Also, I saw greater value when drafting in the top 20 to select a top 5 QB rather than the 8-12 ranked RBs.  I feel even more strongly about that this year, as I fully believe that at least 3 (and maybe as many as 5) QBs could (and SHOULD) be drafted within the top 15 picks.

I see the upper tier of fantasy QBs to be in the 5-6 range. Those players include Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Brees, Stafford, and possibly Vick. There really isn’t much that separates them. With the exception of Vick, they all have the potential to pass for over 4000 yards and 30 TDs; Vick’s rushing acumen, coupled with solid passing production, elevates his status — although his fragile physique pushes him down a notch below the other 5.  I’ve chatted with 5 different fantasy writers, and all five of them have these QBs ranked in different order.

After this top tier; however, questions begin to crop up. Rivers, Romo, Eli, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and possibly Matt Schaub will all be drafted as some fantasy owner’s  starting QB. Then there is the draft’s biggest wildcard: what to do with Peyton Manning? Each either comes with significant risk or low upside.  Fantasy owners who wait too long to address the QB position, may find themselves hoping to hit pay dirt with players like Cutler, Freeman or RG3.  If you have stocked up on the RB and WR positions, it is possible that you could make do with one of these young QBs as your starter – but all three would best serve as top drawer backups. And exactly how wise is it to stock up on RBs early this year?

Everyone wants an Arian Foster or a Ray Rice — but if you can’t get one of them, your odds of landing a decent RB in the later rounds may not be as bad as you think. Taking a close look at the RBs who finished in the top 10 in fantasy scoring last year, only six of them (Foster, Rice, MJD, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, and Michael Turner) were drafted in the first two rounds in typical 12-team fantasy leagues. While some first rounders were disappointments (Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Mendenhall), others were outright busts (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, McFadden, Ryan Grant,  etc.). Meanwhile, guys like Marshawn Lynch, Darren Sproles, and Michael Bush were taken in the later rounds (and even went undrafted) in many leagues — but out-performed many of the aforementioned RBs who were drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Here is a practical scenario:

Let’s say you are picking toward the end of the first round. Conventional wisdom would dictate that you take care of your RB situation by taking two of them with your back-to-back (or at least near back-to-back)  selections.  Assuming that you definitely go RB with one of those picks, let’s say that your choice is between the 9th ranked RB (in our case, Darren McFadden) and the 3rd ranked QB (Cam Newton per our rankings) for the other pick. The key here is to look ahead to what will likely be available with your next 2 picks. Looking at our overall rankings, that would put you in the situation of choosing between the 7th QB (Eli Manning) and the 16th RB (Michael Turner). 

Glancing at our trusted GCAM, we can see that the projected output for the #3 fantasy QB is 358.75 points, and the projected output for the #8 fantasy QB is 308 points.  That is a 50.75 point separation. Meanwhile, the #9 fantasy RB projects to score 203.75 points, and we get 171.5 points for the #16 fantasy RB. That is a difference of just 32.25 points – not nearly as significant a drop-off.  Since the name of the game is to score the most overall points each week, it makes sense that you would rather miss out on a shade over 32 points by waiting to address your 2nd RB than lose out on nearly 51 points by waiting on your top QB. To pass on a QB over a RB there would cost you nearly 20 points.

Food for thought.