It is weeks like this one that try my sanity — and even cause me to question my acumen as supposed fantasy expert.

In one of my leagues I was done-in this past week by a guy who was forced to start Matt Schaub at QB because his usual starter, Eli Manning, was on a bye. Now, I suppose with the way that Eli had been under-performing the last few weeks, my opponent may very well have started Schaub against the lousy Jacksonville defense anyway. True enough. But what hurts is that this guy had very little else in his fantasy lineup this week — yet was able to beat my team thanks almost exclusively to Schaub’s contributions. Schaub passed for 527 yards and 5 TDs, which was good enough for 35 points in this league.

For my part, I whiffed on a couple of my own players in this same league.

It seems that I had the good sense to pick up Marcel Reece off the waiver wire. However, I did not have the cajones to start him over resident stud LeSean McCoy. What am I always preaching? Start your studs every week, right? Of course, Reece racked up almost 200 yards in total offense, and McCoy looks to be out of the lineup for the foreseeable future after sustaining a concussion in a situation in which he probably should not have even been on the field, given that the Eagles were long out of the contest against Washington.

It gets better.

I was so convinced that Denarius Moore was going to have a great week against the Saints’ lousy pass defense (last in the league in most fantasy circles), that I started him over Andre Johnson. This was actually a close call, but I trusted my player rankings. I had Moore ranked 10th and Johnson 15th at the WR position.Moore rewarded my confidence with one measly catch for 9 yards. Considering that Moore also had one rushing attempt for negative 5 yards, he netted me a single catch for 4 yards. Ugh! After the game, reporters asked Palmer why he didn’t get Moore more involved. Well, he tried — 7 targets, which is reasonable — but Palmer said that he and Moore had some communication issues during the game. They promise to work on that together this week. Thanks, fellas.

I did not hate Johnson, I just figured that Arian Foster and the running game would have so much success that neither Schaub nor Johnson would be a huge factor. And who could have guessed that Chad Henne — who did not even start the game, mind you — and Justin Blackmon would FORCE Schaub and AJ to do what they did by rolling up their own collection of insane stats against the Texans’ vaunted defense?

Bet many of you are regretting starting Houston’s defense too, huh?

Like I said, it was just one of those weeks.

Week 10 provided us with an interesting display of football as many games went as planned — while others took a massive detour into the unexpected. An, while we were right on with most of our fantasy predictions, we were a bit off on some and WAY off on others.

The Good

Not necessarily that the players performed well — but rather that our prediction of how they would perform was pretty much on the money.

Matt Ryan (Start)
The Prophecy: He has a VERY favorable match-up on tap in Week 10 when the Falcons head out to New Orleans to face the Saints. The Saints rank #30 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. They also rank #32 in points allowed to fantasy QBs. New Orleans has been awful on defense this season and Ryan threw for a combined 724 yards and three scores in the teams’ two meetings last year. Call him our START OF THE WEEK.
The Reality: This one was really not that hard to predict. The game turned into a shootout, and Ryan put the ball in the air 52 times. He finished with 414 passing yards, 3 TD passes and an INT. He also came very close to completing a 4th TD pass at the end of the game.

Philip Rivers (Start)
The Prophecy: An average game for him is 230 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. That is not getting it done from a fantasy perspective. Even last week against the lousy Chiefs defense he was efficient rather than explosive. So why are suggesting rolling him out there this week? Well, Rivers takes on a weak Buccaneers’ passing defense. The Bucs are allowing over 318 passing yards per game — last in the league. They also rank #32 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings.
The Reality: In what turned out to be a losing effort, Rivers completed 29 of 37 pass attempts for 337 yards and 3 TDs. Alas, his 2 INTs were very costly, but he still wound up being a top 5 fantasy QB in most formats.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Reward)
The Prophecy:Fitz remains a hit-or-miss proposition. Last week, we suggested sitting him against a strong Texan defense — and hopefully you took our advice. The usual flaws in his game continue to resonate: no touch on the deep ball, inconsistent accuracy (as opposed to downright inaccuracy) and a maddening tendency to average little more than 5-6 yards per pass attempt. Although these same issues will likely rare their ugly ahead this week once more against the Patriots this week, the good news is that the New England secondary has problems covering as well as tackling. The Patriots rank #28 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and are giving up the fifth most points to fantasy QBs. Hence, Fitzpatrick should be good for a decent amount of passing yards and possibly multiple TD passes.
The Reality: This turned out to be genuinely prophetic, as Fitz did exactly what he suggested he would. He passed for 337 yards and multiple (2) TD passes. He also threw a really bad interception at the worst possible time, as the Bills were driving for a would-be go-ahead score with 30 seconds to go.

Matt Schaub (Sit)
The Prophecy: Schaub might be throwing more than expected in Week 10 at Chicago, but that will be a difficult match-up. The Bears’ defense ranks #1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Plan on using Schaub as a No. 2 Fantasy quarterback against the Bears.
The Reality: In what turned out to be an ugly (or beautiful, depending upon your perspective) defensive battle, the Texans had trouble getting the passing game going against the Bears. In fact, Schaub failed to crack the 100-yard mark, passing for just 95 yards. He did complete a TD pass to Arian Foster but also tossed 2 INTs.

Stevan Ridley (Start)
The Prophecy:He and the Pats are rested after a bye and will face a familiar opponent this week. Ridley had 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns Week 4 against the Bills, so Ridley will be a viable Fantasy option again Week 10. The Bills rank #31 in our Run Defense Power Rankings, #32 in rushing TDs allowed, #31 in rushing yards allowed, and are #32 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. Ridley should be a top 10 fantasy option at the RB position this week.
The Reality: We predicted 99 total yards and a TD. Ridley finished with 98 yards and a TD.

C.J. Spiller (Reward)
The Prophecy:The Bills made idiotically little use of the running game in their loss to the Texans last week, despite the fact that they were in the game until the closing minutes. That is on Chan Gailey. Hopefully, he will make better use of Spiller and Jackson this week against the Patriots. Throw out the poor performances by both Jackson and Spiller last time they faced the Pats (in Week 4) — both were being rushed (probably too soon) from injuries. Spiller is clearly the more explosive of the two Buffalo backs, and we expect Gailey to find clever ways to get Spiller involved. Even if the Bills fall behind early and are forced into the passing game, Spiller is effective in that role as well.
The Reality: Gailey did not exactly wake up and smell the coffee, but Jackson and Spiller combined for 25 carries against the Patriots, and, while Jackson did get the most attention, Spiller was indeed the more explosive of the two. In fact, Spiller finished with 131 yards on just 13 total touches.

Ryan Mathews (Sit)
The Prophecy: Mathews has yet to top 100 yards rushing in a game this year, and he has rushed for just one touchdown. He has a solid 4.4 yards-per-carry on the season, but (again) the lack of meaningful touches continues to be a problem. The Chargers will try to get Mathews going in Week 10 against the Buccaneers, a team that is allowing just 14.1 Fantasy points per game against running backs. The Buccaneers rank #5 in our Run Defense Power Rankings and are #1 in rushing yards allowed.
The Reality: We predicted 73 total yards with no score. Mathews finished the day with 76 total yards and no score. At least Norv Turner TRIED to get him involved with 17 rushes and 22 total touches in the game.

DeAngelo Williams (Sit)
The Prophecy: Just when we were all writing him off (even believing that the Panthers would trade him), Williams responded with a pretty good fantasy outing. Of course, this performance was essentially the result of a single carry — a 30-yard TD run in which Williams put on ballet-like moves to tightrope the sideline. The run was also aided by an inadvertent whistle (sure these are not replacement officials?), which may have caused the defense to ease up. Williams gained just 7 yards on his other five carries. Not good. So do not let this one run, fool you into inflating Williams’ value (unless you are trying to hoodwink another owner into trading for him). Williams and Stewart remain in what amounts to a time share with each of them getting an almost identical number of carries (67 for Williams, 62 for Stewart), and Stewart being the more effective of the two in the passing game.
The Reality: Bingo! Williams was his usual ineffective self with 6 rushes for 6 yards and a single reception for 17 yards. Not that Stewart is much better, but at least he managed to rush for 32 yards and caught 2 passes.

Matt Forte (Risk)
The Prophecy:Forte is an elite running back, and now has double-digit Fantasy points in three of his last four games. You probably have to start him, but be fore-warned that he has a tough match-up this week. The Texans rank #4 in our Run Defense Power Rankings, #1 in rushing TDs allowed, #2 in rushing yards allowed, and #3 in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
The Reality: The Texans indeed did a great job bottling Forte up all game long.

Michael Crabtree (Start)
The Prophecy: He’s a decent bet in your lineup this week being that he had 12 catches for 182 yards and 3 TDs against St. Louis last year and 10 catches for 183 yards and 2 TDs in 2010. This means that he’s scored 4 straight games against St. Louis.
The Reality: Make that 5 straight games. It did not matter whether it was Smith or Kaepernick throwing the ball, Crabtree was getting his share of looks. He finished with 5 receptions for 70 yards and a TD.

Malcolm Floyd (Start)
The Prophecy: The Chargers will take on the Buccaneers in Week 10, a team that has had trouble stopping wide receivers this season. They are averaging 27.9 Fantasy points against the Bucs this season as the Buccaneers rank #32 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. The Buccaneers currently rank #32 in receiving yards allowed. The Buccaneers rank #30 against fantasy WRs. Consider Floyd a viable starting Fantasy option in most formats for the matchup.
The Reality: As I already pointed out in discussing Rivers, the San Diego passing game looked just fine against the Bucs on Sunday. Floyd caught 6 of his 7 targets for 63 yards and a TD.

Cecil Shorts (Reward)
The Prophecy: Because Shorts has made his living on big plays during this breakout season, you might think a low number of targets is the norm for him, but he was in double digits in his previous two games, but he fell flat on his face last week with Robinson back and Blackmon getting more targets. With the Colts D having given up 12 passing TDs to date, we see Shorts as a decent sleeper WR pick this week in deeper formats.
The Reality: It seems like awhile ago now, since this was a Thursday nighter. However, Shorts finished the game with 105 yards and a score.

Steve Smith (Risk)
The Prophecy: Smith is going to catch some passes this week against the Broncos. The guys is an incredible WR. In fact, he made an incredible catch for his touchdown last week against Washington. The problem is that he didn’t necessarily rack up the yards expected against Washington’s porous secondary. Being that he has only 1 TD on the season we wouldn’t bet on a repeat this week. And if he can’t find the end zone, he won’t be a great play.
The Reality: No end zone for Smith, who was targeted 7 times but caught just 1 pass for 19 yards.

Scott Chandler (Reward)
The Prophecy: The Patriots rank #28 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #29 against fantasy TEs. Being that the Bills will need to pass early and often against the Pats high-powered offense, Chandler figures for a good match-up. Also keep in mind that he had four catches for 62 yards and two touchdowns against New England in Week 4, so he should be considered a potential starter in Week 10.
The Reality: Chandler caught 5 passes for 65 yards and a TD. He came within inches of catching another TD pass on the play before Fitzpatrick’s ill-fated interception.

Kyle Rudolph (Reward)
The Prophecy: Looking toward Week 10 vs. Detroit, Rudolph managed just two catches for 8 yards Week 4 against the Lions. However, wide receiver Percy Harvin (ankle) might sit out Sunday, so that could mean more targets for Rudolph. In fact, we do expect him to catch a TD pass in a play-action situation as Detroit will likely sell out to try to stop the red hot Peterson.
The Reality: Rudolph led the team in targets (9 of them), and finished the day with 7 receptions for 64 yards — and a TD.

Brent Celek (Sit)
The Prophecy: The Cowboys rank #4 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #3 in receiving TDs allowed. Celek has underwhelmed in recent weeks and that trend continued Monday night. He has just 12 catches for 112 yards in the last three games and has not score since Week 5. Michael Vick’s struggles have hindered his value in Fantasy so owners with a more reliable option should consider keeping Celek reserved for Week 10 against the Cowboys.
The Reality: Although we did not predict that Vick would get hurt, it did not seem to matter which QB was in there. Celek finished the game with just 3 receptions for 31 yards.

The Bad

These were all predictions on which we were a bit off.

Eli Manning (Reward)
The Prophecy: Eli has struggled to even get to a modest 200 yards passing in recent weeks. of course, he has faced some very strong defenses, so the match-ups have been tough. In the last four games he has taken on the 49ers, Redskins, Cowboys and Steelers. of those four, only the Redskins could be considered a favorable match-up. We expect Eli to get back on the horse this week against the Bengals. Opposing QBs average about 260 passing yards per game against the Bengals. Also, over the last 3 games, the Bengals have allowed 6 TD passes. Looking at it that way, 260 passing yards and 2 TD passes would qualify Eli as a mid-tier starting fantasy QB this week. You should view him as such.
The Reality: For fantasy owners, the Eli Manning situation has crossed the threshold now of being an absolute crisis situation. Against a Bengals defense that has been far from superb, Eli failed to get it into the endzone a single time and tossed 2 INTs.

Ryan Tannehill (Reward)
The Prophecy:Tannehill has a strong matchup in Week 10, against a Titans team that has surrendered 20 touchdown passes and is allowing 282.7 passing yards per game. Assuming the knee holds up, Tannehill should be considered a low-end Fantasy option in deeper formats for Week 10.
The Reality: Yea, well, that Tennessee-Miami game did NOT go an anticipated. Rather than a shootout, what we saw was a blowout. Tannehill struggled mightily with no TD passes and 3 INTs.

Sam Bradford (Sit)
The Prophecy:As we predicted headed into the season, Bradford has been a weak fantasy performer in 2012. In fact, he has really only posted two really good fantasy performances this season: a 3-touchdown pass game way back in Week 2 against Washington and a 315-yard effort against the Dolphins where he failed to throw a TD pass). Otherwise, Bradford has been an after-thought in fantasy. When we last saw him against the Patriots (a defense against whom we thought he may have had some success), he barely managed to crack the 200-yard mark and tossed just 1 TD pass. Jeff Fisher is a bigger fan of running the ball, and you have to figure that will be the Rams’ focus coming off their bye. Of great concern is the opponent this week, the 49ers, who are also coming off a bye. The 49ers rank #2 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings. They are also first in passing TDs allowed, #2 in passing yards allowed and #2 in fewest points allowed to fantasy QBs. Unless you are in a real bind and have no other choice, keep Bradford on your bench.
The Reality: Bradford actually had a very good game against the 49ers with 275 passing yards and 2 TD passes. Bear in mind that he also had another 80-yard pass to Danny Amendola called back due to a penalty.

Chris Johnson (Risk)
The Prophecy: At this point, Johnson is a borderline must-start, but temper expectations. He could still be fool’s gold — and takes on a Miami defense that ranks #3 in our Run Defense Power Rankings and is #3 in rushing yards allowed.
The Reality: At least we did not suggest benching him, so hopefully this was more a case of reaping better benefits than you anticipated. On 23 carries, he finished with 126 yards and a TD. He also tacked on a couple of receptions for 8 more yards for good measure.

Victor Cruz (Reward)
The Prophecy:Cruz remains a must-start Fantasy receiver in all formats for Week 10 at Cincinnati.
The Reality: It is hard to suggest benching Cruz, but he has now had 3 lousy games in a row. Obviously as Eli has gone, so has gone the Giants’ receivers. This a team that can really use their bye in Week 11.

Kenny Britt (Reward)
The Prophecy: It looks like Locker will play this week, but being that the Dolphins rank #29 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings, #30 in receiving yards allowed, and #29 against fantasy WRs, Britt should be a good play. Britt’s 67 yards last week represented a season high, and he seems to be steadily improving as he gets farther away from his lost 2011 season. Britt should be a nice flex-play or WR3 this week.
The Reality: The Titans dominated the Dolphins, but ironically Britt played a very little role in the game. Just 2 catches for 36 yards.

Brandon Lloyd (Reward)
The Prophecy:Lloyd has just three catches for 34 yards in his last two games, but two of those touchdowns have now gone for touchdowns, which is huge in Fantasy. Being that he scored a TD against Buffalo earlier this year and that Welker and Hernandez are dinged up, Lloyd should be a decent marginal WR2 or a really good flex option.
The Reality: The Buffalo-New England game was a very unusual one. Despite putting up 37 points against the Bills, the Pats’ offense was not overwhelming. In fact, 2 of their TDs were set up first and goal from the one yard-line due to questionable pass interference calls. Also an early turnover, set them up with a short field on which to score. So, while the Pats were effectively scoring, they were not having to consume large chunks of field and clock to do so — the Bills wound up controlling the time of possession and far out-did the Pats in terms of yards. Case in point is Lloyd, who caught 5 passes for a harmless 45 yards.

Danny Amendola (Risk)
The Prophecy: Amendola has been putting in limited practices over the past two weeks, but with the added benefit of teh extra bye last week to heal, he is fully expected to play in Week 10 against the 49ers. He has been Sam Bradford’s most reliable target but has been out since Week 5. The good news is that he should see the bulk of targets in the passing game. The bad news is that his welcome back does come against a stout 49er defense that is tough on opposing WRs. Given the concerns about his being rusty after missing so much time and the tough match-up, we do not see him as anything better than a flex play in PPR formats this week.
The Reality: No rust here. Amendola was a PPR stud Sunday with 11 receptions of 102 yards. As I already mentioned, he almost had another reception of 80 yards to add to the mix too.

Anthony Fasano (Reward)
The Prophecy:Despite the fact that Fasano has just 2 catches for 12 yards the last two weeks he won’t be a good bet in a PPR league. However, he should be a nice sleeper TE this week as he’s scored 2 TDs the last 3 weeeks and faces a Titans defense that ranks #31 in receiving TDs allowed and #32 against fantasy TEs. We expect to see him catch another red zone TD this week.
The Reality: Fasano slept through the game alright. Was he even there? Oh, he did catch one pass for 4 yards.

Dan Carpenter (Reward)
The Prophecy: Carpenter is a nice sleeper play if your regular kicker is on a bye this week. The Titans rank #32 against fantasy Kickers. So while Carpenter missed four of his first 10 attempts this season, he has not missed a field-goal attempt since Week 5 and is hot of late. Being that the Dolphins will likely put up points in Week 10 against the Titans we consider him a viable kicking option this week.
The Reality: Seeing a pattern here? That Tennessee-Miami game really did not go as forecast, and thus, we missed on a number of player, including Carpenter, whose contribution was a single field goal. It gets worse (see below)…

New York Giants Defense (Start)
The Prophecy: The Giants defense is rolling of late. They rank 2nd in the NFL with 26 turnovers and 3rd with 25 sacks. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Bengals have allowed the 8th most sacks and Dalton has been picked off 11 times. The G-men should be a relevant fantasy D again this week. Start them in all formats.
The Reality: Yea, not much good to say about the Giants’ effort against the Bengals on Sunday. Any Dalton set a career high against them with 4 TD passes. Need I say more?

The Ugly

Undoubtedly many fantasy owners are slapping themselves this morning if they followed our advice on any of these plays in Week 10. Oh, if we only had a crystal ball!

Carson Palmer (Risk)
The Prophecy: Palmer will need to get his turnovers under control or he could be in for a long day when the Raiders head out to Baltimore to face the Ravens in Week 10. While Palmer has shown flashes of his high-end potential, he should be considered more of a low-end option this week.
The Reality: Palmer passed for 369 yards and 2 TD passes, as he was forced to air it out early and often against the Ravens. I should have made a better prediction on this one given that I knew that the Raiders’ running backs were banged up and that Palmer would HAVE to throw.

Rashad Jennings (Start)
The Prophecy:Jennings looks to be a sneaky good start this week. First, we already know that Maurice Jones-Drew will miss at least another week (and probably more than that) with his foot injury. That was the case last week too, but the Jags got down in the game early and were forced into pass-happy mode. On a per-touch basis, Jennings did fine. We expect the Jags to be much more competitive against the Colts this week, and expect the running game to be more on display. The Colts, meanwhile, present a most favorable match-up for Jennings and the Jags. Start him as a RB2 with confidence.
The Reality: Nothing “sneaky good” here. And I promise to never use the word “condidence” and Rashad Jennings in the same sentence again. Against a porous Indy run defense, Jennings managed just 27 yards on 11 carries.

Reggie Bush (Start)
The Prophecy: Although the Dolphins have played surprisingly well though the first half of the season, Reggie Bush has seen his touches drop week-by-week as Daniel Thomas has begun to eat into his production. Still, Bush remains the Dolphins’ top rusher, and it makes sense not to over-work him. They key is that Miami is finding ways to use him effectively. So, even if he only sees, say, 15 carries per game, the probability is strong that he will manage 60-70 rushing yards — and more in the passing game. He should have a good chance to find room to operate this week against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed 100 yards rushing in seven of nine games this season, and are surrendering 24.5 Fantasy points per game. The Titans currently rank #30 in rushing yards allowed and #30 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. We like him a s a solid RB2 this week.
The Reality: Not much to say here. Bush was highly ineffective: just 4 carries for 21 yards (actually not a bad 7.0 yard average) and caught 1 pass for 8 yards. The issue was a really bad fumble that proved costly. In fact, Bush wound up riding the pine for much of the day and watched  Daniel Thomas get most of the carries.

Michael Turner (Reward)
The Prophecy: The Saints have been dreadful defending the run thus far (170.1 ypg) and Turner has averaged 77.8 yard rushing and scored four TDs over eight career games against them. Continue to roll with Turner as a viable start in all formats this week.
The Reality: If I were doing an All Villain Team, as I did a few weeks back, Turner would be the #1 selection. This was not a case, like Reggie Bush’s were he simply did not get enough carries. Turner actually got 13 carries in the game — but managed just 15 yards. He did not catch a pass, and when given multiple opportunities to score from short range could not get it done. If he couldn’t give fantasy owners more than 1.5 points against a terrible Saints defense, it is going to be VERY hard trusting him moving forward.

Steven Jackson (Sit)
The Prophecy: Are Jackson’s days in St. Louis numbered? It certainly looks that way. There were rumors that he was on the trading block headed into the trade deadline that came and went last week. Jackson is expected to void the final year of his contract — worth $7 million — and explore the market. That may not be such a good idea, considering that he really has not done anything this season to merit excitement in free agency. He also turns 30 in the off-season, which is ancient in running back years. Jackson has yet to crack 80 rushing yards in a game this season and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

The allure to Jackson in the preseason was that he was one of the few workhorse RBs left in the NFL. Not any more. SJAX has lost valuable carries to rookie Daryl Richardson. The shift to the younger player could be even more pronounced now after the Rams’ Week 9 bye. Worse, the Rams take on the 49ers this week. The 49ers’ defense ranks #1 in points allowed to fantasy RBs. Our best advice is to leave him on the bench.
The Reality: Jackson had by far his biggest day of the year. The amazing thing is how involved he was in the offensive game plan: 31 total touches. He ran hard against the stout 49er defense, and finished with 127 total yards and a TD.

Sidney Rice (Sit)
The Prophecy:Sidney Rice has scored TDs in 3 of the last 4 weeks and has elevated himself to a WR3 option. The problem with planning to play him this week is that the Jets rank #3 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings and #1 in fantasy points allowed to fantasy WRs. Don’t plug him in and play him against the Jets who’ve grounded nearly all WRs to date.
The Reality: OK, Rice (who is unowned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues) only caught 2 passes in the Seahawks win over the Jets on Sunday. But both receptions were huge, as they amounted to 54 yards and 2 TDs.

Jeremy Maclin (Sit)
The Prophecy:After struggling with injuries in weeks 2-5, Maclin finally showed up against the Lions in week 6. However, he has been almost MIA since then with 8 catches for 61 yards. Adding insult, the Cowboys rank #4 in our Pass Defense Power Rankings, #3 in receiving TDs allowed, and #6 against fantasy WRs. With Michael Vick struggling and missing his top 3 OTs with season ending injuries, Maclin is not a good bet.
The Reality: Maybe he was not a good bet, but he turned out to be a great start in fantasy. He caught 8 passes for 93 yards and a TD.

Vernon Davis (Start)
The Prophecy: A bye week is a good time for a coach to reflect on his team and determine where they can improve. Where the 49ers can improve is to find a pass catching target to complement Crabtree. That should be Vernon Davis who started the year on fire and is now ice cold. Davis has had 3 or less catches and less than 38 yards in 3 of his last 4 games. We expect him to be more relevant in the pasing game this week and moving forward, so get Davis back in your lineup.
The Reality: Even with the benfit of an extra full quarter to play, Davis did very little. He caught just 4 passes for 30 yards.

Greg Olsen (Risk)
The Prophecy: With the Panthers enjoying more success on the ground, Olsen was held in check against Washington. This is disappointing as the Skins ranked 32nd in fantasy points allowed to TEs. This week Olsen has a shot at redemption against the Broncos 30th ranked D against fantasy TEs, but don’t put too many eggs in this basket. You see, Olsen has scored just once this season and will be just a borderline Fantasy option for Week 10 against Denver.
The Reality: Olsen was an absolute beast Sunday. He caught 9 of his 10 targets for 102 yards and a pair of TDs.

Connor Barth (Risk)
The Prophecy: While his team has been busy putting up a lot of points of late, the Chargers rank #1 in field goals allowed and #2 in fantasy points allowed to fantasy Kickers. Furthermore, being that Barth is only 13 for 17 in field goals on the year, he’s a shaky play.
The Reality: Kickers are always so hard to predict, which is why we always suggest waiting until the last round to draft one. Barth kicked 2 field goals and 4 extra points against the Chargers on Sunday. The Bucs’ offense has been highly productive the last several weeks, and Barth has been a major benefactor.

Chicago Bears Defense (Risk)
The Prophecy:Da Bears have that Monsters of the Midway defense that ranks 1st in the NFL with 28 takeways through 9 games. That’s more than 3 a game. They also rank 2nd in sacks per game. Therefore, you might wonder why we have them on this list. Well, the Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed and have turned the ball over only 6 times.
The Reality:Yea, well. We obviously tried to get too cute here. If you have the Bears D, start them EVERY week.

Pick 1

Two-QB Leagues: Aaron Rodgers

All Other Formats: Arian Foster

The temptation will be great to draft a QB early given the number of crazy points that fantasy QBs have been posting in recent years. However, if you pass on a RB here and wait until the end of the 2nd round, you will wind up with a risky bet as your RB1 at the end of the 2nd.

On the other hand, in typical leagues that start only one QB, there will still be plenty of QB talent available later. If one of the big 5 (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford, or Newton) QBs slip to the end of the 2nd, then you will have a nice duo of Foster and one of these QBs — plus with the first pick of the 3rd round you will land the RB you would have drafted as your top RB had you selected Rodgers #1 overall, only now he will serve as your RB2 along with Foster.

Of course, in leagues where you can start 2 QBs taking Rodgers makes sense, since the starting pool is now 24 deep rather than 12 deep. In that case, more QBs will come off the board in the first two rounds, so there is a good chance that a decent RB1 (like Marshawn Lynch) will still be available at the end of the 2nd round.

Regardless, unless something really crazy happens, there is no reason to consider drafting a WR until the 4th, since you will likely find a decent WR1 option still available there. After Calvin Johnson, the wide receiver mix is crowded. Very little separates, for example, the #3 WR from the #12 WR.  Unless Gronkowski or Graham falls to then end of the 2nd, no need to address the TE position until the 6th round or later; the TE position is very deep this year.

Pick 2

Two-QB Leagues: Tom Brady

All Other Formats: Ray Rice

Really, I see Foster and Rice (wasn’t that the name of a great song writing duo back in the 1970s?) as 1 and 1A. Very little separates them, and in some PPR formats, I can even see taking Rice ahead of Foster. Foster gets the razor-thin edge because his TD output is likely to be greater, and he has more breakaway speed to maximize his YPC totals. Otherwise, see my comments about the Foster pick.

Pick 3

Two-QB Leagues: Drew Brees

All Other Formats: LeSean McCoy

Actually, this is an IDEAL spot to be picking in most fantasy formats. If you are a fan of using tiers, McCoy belongs in the same tier as Foster and Rice. In TD-Only formats, he would have been the TOP choice in 2011. He still figures to be used heavily in all situations in 2012 and should be a top 3 pick in most formats. You are assured of getting one of the elite three RBs with this pick — and if the first two owners have done the smart thing, your decision will be made fr you. Then you will have the added advantage of picking a spot or two ahead of them in normal serpentine drafts. That means a greater shot at one of the stud QBs or Gronkowski/Graham.

Pick 4

Two-QB Leagues: Arian Foster

All Other Formats: Aaron Rodgers

Here is where the first real curve ball could come. The way I see it, there are 6 blue chip players in this year’s draft: Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Brady, and Calvin Johnson. That means that the owner picking 4th could conceivably go Rodgers, Brady or Megatron.

But there is also another possibility that is not overly outlandish.

Many fantasy enthusiasts who have been doing this for a long time have resigned themselves to drafting a RB in the first round — regardless. The consensus fourth-rated RB is Calvin Johnson, although there is significant drop-off from the top three to him. I wouldn’t do that because I think it is a reach to take Johnson that high coming off the disappointing season he just had. 

Pick 5

Two-QB Leagues: Ray Rice

All Other Formats: Calvin Johnson

Ordinarily, I would highly recommend NOT drafting a wide receiver in the first round — ever. But Calvin Johnson is in a tier all by himself at the position. There is Megatron — and then there is everybody else. He will come close to 100 catches, rack up about 1500 yards and score a dozen or more TDs. If you go this direction, you almost HAVE to take a RB with your 2nd round pick — cross your fingers that someone like McFadden, Lynch, or Forte falls; otherwise focus on upside based  on whom is left (Trent Richardson?).

Pick 6

Two-QB Leagues: LeSean McCoy

All Other Formats: Tom Brady

Much like the #3 pick, this is an ideal spot to be picking. In fact, if I had my choice of which pick I would like to have in this draft, I would choose the #6 spot. That would guarantee one of the 6 blue chip players — plus a middle-of-the-round pick in each of the even rounds. I like Brady almost as much as Rodgers. In fact, Brady will probably pass for more yards and possibly more TDs than Rodgers. Rodgers gets the slight nod because he is younger and more effective in the ground game.

Pick 7

Two-QB Leagues: Matthew Stafford

All Other Formats: Drew Brees

Here is where the drop-off begins. I go Brees here because I see the smallest gap between him and the elite tier. Brees is himself one of the elite 5 fantasy QBs, but I rate him a notch below Rodgers/Brady because of the Bounty-Gate situation. I have confidence that Brees will be Brees, meaning that 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing TDs are certainly possible, but there is a definite concern about his not having Sean Peyton at his side all year.

If you do draft Brees here, as with the Brady pick, you should draft a RB in the second.

Pick 8

Two-QB Leagues: Calvin Johnson

All Other Formats: Chris Johnson

I flirted with the Johnson pick at #4, but he makes for much greater value here. Taking him here gives you strong flexibility in the 2nd round. You could draft another RB, a stud QB, Gronkowski/Graham, or even a wide receiver (like Fitzgerald).

Pick 9

Two-QB Leagues: Chris Johnson

All Other Formats: Darren McFadden

This is the hold-your-nose portion of the first round. We are now firmly into the 2nd tier, and there are sincere questions about all the remaining RBs. You could go QB here (Stafford or Newton, assuming that Rodgers, Brady and Brees are gone), WR (Larry Fitzgerald?), or even tight end (as I do NOT see Gronk or Graham as a serious reach here).

However, this is also the part of the round where you can start looking ahead to what players may be available when you pick again in the 2nd round, as only 6 players will go before you pick again in a 12-team serpentine draft. That means that at least one of the players from the list of options I just presented will still be there for you at pick #16. So my strategy at #9 is to look for upside. I see the most upside with 2 players at this point: Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden.

MJD represented over 48% of the Jacksonville offense in 2011, the most of any player in 30 years. You have to go back to the days of OJ Simpson and the Electric Company in Buffalo to compare. But he is sitting at home as we speak, so I cannot in good conscience suggest drafting him in the first round.

DMC has Foster/Rice/McCoy potential if he can stay healthy. That, of course, is the big gamble, though, as McCoy has not shown that he CAN stay healthy. Still, I like that gamble here, and you can probably hedge your bet by taking a safe RB option like Forte in the 2nd round.

Pick 10

Two-QB Leagues: Cam Newton

All Other Formats: Marshawn Lynch

I have honestly been all over the map with Lynch. When I released by first rankings back in April I have him ranked #6 overall — and part of what I saw then as a elite tier with 8 blue chip players. That would be the 6 blue chippers I already alluded to plus MJD and Lynch. Then the DUI situation popped up, and my immediate reaction was to overreact. I dropped Lynch all the way down to about 30 at that time.

Now that the smoke has settled, it looks like his legal situation will be pushed back until 2013. That means no chance for jail time or a league suspension. As I write this, there is no guarantee that is the way it will play out — but appears to be the direction. So, there certainly is some risk in drafting Lynch this high.

Given that he is a true workhorse back, who when in “Beast Mode” has an uncanny nose for the end zone, the possibility of 1200+ rushing yards, double-digit TDs and quality production in the receiving game is present. Remember, the only reason I moved him down from 6 was the legal issues. If the legal issues truly are a non-factor (at least in 2012), you would be getting a top 6 player toward the end of the first round.

Pick 11

Two-QB Leagues: Darren McFadden

All Other Formats: DeMarco Murray

Maybe not great value here, but a pretty good and safe selection, I think. The alternative would be Stafford/Newton (which I do not believe is great value either), Fitzgerald, or one of the stud TEs. My reasoning is that the person picking 12th and 13th could go RB-RB (which could leave you slim pickings at the position at #14), but he is not going to take more than one QB or TE. That means that you will still have a shot at getting one of the elite TEs or QBs if that is what you want to do (and assuming that the draft has fallen the way I have it).

The question is why Murray over, say, Forte or MJD? Well, I already explained my concerns about MJD. Forte may be safer, but I do not see him scoring more than 6-8 TDs in 2012. I really do believe that Murray has a chance to be a quality fantasy RB1. Receivers (including TE Jason Witten) are dropping flies in Big D, so look for the ‘Boys to try to pound the ball more this year.

If you do draft Murray, it may not be a bad idea to pick up Felix Jones with a late-round pick.

Pick 12

Two-QB Leagues: Marshawn Lynch

All Other Formats: Matt Forte

There are two things I like about picking 12th in a 12-team league. If you are in a league with newbies, it gives you distinct advantage of possibly landing a player who has slipped through the cracks. Secondly, it gives you the opportunity to set the tone for the 2nd round — and essentially everything thereafter.

In terms of a draft “grade”, I see Forte as more of a mid second round talent. However, in this year’s draft, there are are only a handful of genuine first rounders. Many of the players I have going before him have greater upside, but I think Forte is safer. He is going to account for about 100 all-purpose yards most games and will be active in the passing game to drive up his PPR value.

Considering that you will not pick again until the #36 spot, you also need to make that #13 pick count. I think Stafford/Newton, Gronkowski/Graham, or a second RB (maybe this is where to take a gamble of MJD) are all reasonable selections.

In fact, with the low risk-low reward pick of Forte, maybe the high stakes selection of MJD indeed provides you with a perfectly balanced portfolio after two rounds.

By the top tight ends, I am referring to Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, whom I see as options 1 and 1A in fantasy.

This is one of the top questions that we have fielded thus far in the off-season. Historically speaking, the tight end position has always been treated as a fringe one, where most fantasy owners have waited until the middle rounds to address it. A couple of years ago when Antonio Gates was dominant, you may have seen him drafted as high as the 3rd round in typical 12-team formats. However, the explosion of Gronk and Graham in 2011 served to change the perspective of fantasy tight ends.

Getting back to the question at hand, the answer is simple but hardly provocative: It depends.

Let’s start with an easy possibility. If you are in a Keeper League and you owned either of these guys in 2011, you are hanging onto them, period. I can say that with assurance because chances are that both of them were drafted in the 6th or 7th round (or even later) in most formats last year. Even if you have to give up a draft pick a couple of rounds higher, certainly both TEs are worth a 4th or 5th round pick. (The only caveat is that if you are in a league where you can only keep one player, then you wouldn’t want to keep Gronk/Graham over an elite stud like Arian Foster or Ray Rice.)

Now let’s look at the worst case scenario from a ranking perspective for these guys. That would be a league in which you DO NOT HAVE to start a tight end. There are plenty of leagues out there that treat the tight end position as an extension of the wide receiver position. In that case, in order to compare apples to apples, you would have to compare their stats to those of fantasy WRs. Let’s take a moment to do exactly that.

Last year, Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 TD receptions.

Gronkowski caught 90 passes for 1327 yards and a whopping 17 TDs.

Using traditional scoring rules (6 points per TD reception and 1 point for every 10 yards receiving), Gronkowski ranked 2nd among all receivers — behind only Calvin Johnson. Graham was no pushover either, ranking 6th in such a scoring system. In basic PPR scoring formats, Gronk ranked 3rd among all receivers, and Graham ranked 4th. Only Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker ranked higher.

Thus, it is not crazy to project both of these guys to be top 5 receivers in leagues that do not require that you start a tight end each week. We are talking early-to-mid 2nd round value. And that is the worst case scenario.

In most leagues, it is mandatory that you plug a tight end into your lineup every week. And, in those leagues I would not laugh at anyone who bunks conventional wisdom and shocks the other owners in their league by investing a late first-round pick on Gronkowski (or maybe even Graham).

Say it isn’t so!

Well, if you have read any of my writings over the last decade, then you know that I am a huge proponent of value-based drafting. The key, of course, is to closely examine the differential between the projected point totals for all prospective starting tight ends, and compare that point differential to the point differential between projected starters at other positions.

In simple terms, Graham and Gronkowski are projected to score so many more points than the next-best fantasy tight ends, that the advantage of having one of these guys in your lineup every week over your opponent’s starting TE will give you a more significant advantage than nearly any other position player that you could take with a late first-round selection.

Let’s look at a very real possibility. Say you are picking 12th in a typical serpentine re-draft league. You are debating what to do with picks 12 and 13. In years past, most experienced fantasy owners would take back-to-back RBs. In my last blog, I highly recommended NOT doing that given the dearth at the RB position after Foster/Rice/McCoy/MJD. 

Let’s say that there are no surprises with the top 11 picks, and the players come off the board in the same order that we have them ranked in our latest Player Rankings: Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, MJD, Megatron, Brady, CJ2K, Brees, Mathews, and Fitzgerald. That leaves your reasonable choices as follows: Darren McFadden, Matt Stafford, Matt Forte, Wes Welker, Roddy White, Greg Jennings — or (as I have suggested) Graham/Gronkowski.

What do you do?

Remember, you are not picking again until pick 36 — and you know all of these players (including the tight ends) will be long gone. Here is a glimpse of players who may still be on the board there: Fred Jackson (if you are lucky), Victor Cruz, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jordy Nelson, and Eli Manning.  If you want a TE, the 3rd option, Antonio Gates, should still be available — although honestly he would be a reach at 36 or 37.

The dropoff in production at RB is not that pronounced from the end of the 1st round to the end of the 3rd. For example, I have projected Forte to score about 218 points in a standard format, whereas I have Bradshaw scoring about 205. That is just a 13-point differential.

At wide receiver, if you opt to take Fitzgerald, whom I have ranked as the #2 fantasy WR after Calvin Johnson, the dropoff from Fitz (206 points) to Cruz (174 points) or Nelson (173 points) is 30 points. At least that is more significant than the RB point differential.

Although I love Matt Stafford, there is not THAT much difference between him and Eli, as I have Stafford projected to score 301 points, and Eli 281. That is just a 20-point differential.

Finally, I have Gronkowski projected to score 197 points, and Gates just 139 (as I said, it would admittedly be a reach to take Gates that high, but he is probably gone before you pick again at #60). That is a whopping 58-point disparity! For the record, I have Graham projected to score 186 points, which is still almost 50 points more than Gates.

Remember, I have Gates ranked as the third TE. The average starting TE (ranked 6th or 7th), I have projected to score about 125 points. That is 60-70 points fewer than either Graham or Gronkowski. You will not find a point differential like that at any other position.

I won’t debate the merits of either TE over the other (although I do clearly prefer Gronk), but suffice to say that when one owner in your league has the intestinal fortitude to draft one or the other, the second will not be far behind. So if you want one of them, you are best advised to invest a top 15 pick on him.

Last year, really for the first time, I advised fantasy owners to eschew the tried and true “2 Stud RB” strategy and focus on drafting an elite QB early. That was partly because I saw a significant drop-off in RB projections after the top 3-4. Also, I saw greater value when drafting in the top 20 to select a top 5 QB rather than the 8-12 ranked RBs.  I feel even more strongly about that this year, as I fully believe that at least 3 (and maybe as many as 5) QBs could (and SHOULD) be drafted within the top 15 picks.

I see the upper tier of fantasy QBs to be in the 5-6 range. Those players include Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Brees, Stafford, and possibly Vick. There really isn’t much that separates them. With the exception of Vick, they all have the potential to pass for over 4000 yards and 30 TDs; Vick’s rushing acumen, coupled with solid passing production, elevates his status — although his fragile physique pushes him down a notch below the other 5.  I’ve chatted with 5 different fantasy writers, and all five of them have these QBs ranked in different order.

After this top tier; however, questions begin to crop up. Rivers, Romo, Eli, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and possibly Matt Schaub will all be drafted as some fantasy owner’s  starting QB. Then there is the draft’s biggest wildcard: what to do with Peyton Manning? Each either comes with significant risk or low upside.  Fantasy owners who wait too long to address the QB position, may find themselves hoping to hit pay dirt with players like Cutler, Freeman or RG3.  If you have stocked up on the RB and WR positions, it is possible that you could make do with one of these young QBs as your starter – but all three would best serve as top drawer backups. And exactly how wise is it to stock up on RBs early this year?

Everyone wants an Arian Foster or a Ray Rice — but if you can’t get one of them, your odds of landing a decent RB in the later rounds may not be as bad as you think. Taking a close look at the RBs who finished in the top 10 in fantasy scoring last year, only six of them (Foster, Rice, MJD, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, and Michael Turner) were drafted in the first two rounds in typical 12-team fantasy leagues. While some first rounders were disappointments (Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Mendenhall), others were outright busts (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, McFadden, Ryan Grant,  etc.). Meanwhile, guys like Marshawn Lynch, Darren Sproles, and Michael Bush were taken in the later rounds (and even went undrafted) in many leagues — but out-performed many of the aforementioned RBs who were drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Here is a practical scenario:

Let’s say you are picking toward the end of the first round. Conventional wisdom would dictate that you take care of your RB situation by taking two of them with your back-to-back (or at least near back-to-back)  selections.  Assuming that you definitely go RB with one of those picks, let’s say that your choice is between the 9th ranked RB (in our case, Darren McFadden) and the 3rd ranked QB (Cam Newton per our rankings) for the other pick. The key here is to look ahead to what will likely be available with your next 2 picks. Looking at our overall rankings, that would put you in the situation of choosing between the 7th QB (Eli Manning) and the 16th RB (Michael Turner). 

Glancing at our trusted GCAM, we can see that the projected output for the #3 fantasy QB is 358.75 points, and the projected output for the #8 fantasy QB is 308 points.  That is a 50.75 point separation. Meanwhile, the #9 fantasy RB projects to score 203.75 points, and we get 171.5 points for the #16 fantasy RB. That is a difference of just 32.25 points – not nearly as significant a drop-off.  Since the name of the game is to score the most overall points each week, it makes sense that you would rather miss out on a shade over 32 points by waiting to address your 2nd RB than lose out on nearly 51 points by waiting on your top QB. To pass on a QB over a RB there would cost you nearly 20 points.

Food for thought.