One of the cardinal rules of fantasy football is to always start your fantasy studs - regardless of match-up.

But what if you are having your doubts about whether or not a particular guy (say, Matt Stafford), who you drafted as an elite fantasy player still qualifies as such?

What if a guy who HAS been a stud for you so far this year has been hit pretty hard by the injury bug? You know, someone like Trent Richardson.

What if a guy really has not been producing to the level you had hoped — and to top it off faces a very difficult opponent the coming week? Steve Smith, anyone?

Last week we advised benching all three of these one-time fantasy studs. However, all three of them proved us wrong in Week 8. In fact, all three were top 5 fantasy performers at their respective positions — and fantasy owners have to be understandably frustrated if they lost this week due (at least in part) to having benched any of them.

Hind-sight is always 20-20, but looking back our analysis seemed to have merit.

If you are a Matthew Stafford owner, then you know exactly how frustrating it has been trying roll with him every week. As we pointed out, Stafford was averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game but had thrown only 5 TD passes through the first 6 games to go along with 6 INTs. On a week-to-week basis, he ranked #16 among fantasy QBs heading into last week and no longer seemed worthy of an every-week start, we argued.

What’s more, he was facing the Seahawks, who ranked #3 in points allowed to fantasy QBs and had given up the fewest passing TDs in the league. So our advising benching a player who was having trouble finding the end zone against a team that was tops in preventing passing TDs seemed reasonable, no?

Well, all Stafford did was post the best fantasy numbers of any QB this weekend. He passed for 352 yards, 3 TD passes and ran another one in for good measure. A guy whose confidence looked shot against the Bears last Monday night calmly led his team on a game-winning TD drive against the Seahawks, even as his top receiver, Calvin Johnson, was once again choking in the clutch.

This single performance was good enough to catapult Stafford into the top 10 of fantasy QBs after 8 weeks.

Last week Trent Richardson made it onto my Fantasy Villain list. Like the previous week, he had been limited in practice all week with a rib injury. Like the previous week, he was listed on the injury report as “Questionable”. And like the previous week, he was a game-time decision.

When we received word that he would play in Week 7, we breathed a sigh of relief — after all, he was getting a crack at the Colts, whose run defense was very near the bottom in the league. TRich responded with a meager 8 rushing yards in the first half — and found his way onto the bench in the second half. So, it made perfect sense to be wary of the still injured Richardson in his Week 8 match-up against the Chargers’ 2nd ranked run defense, right? Remember, the Chargers were also coming off their bye, so they even had an extra week to get rested and prepared.

That is not the way it worked out, of course. Richardson showed some real guts in pounding the ball between the tackles. He also exhibited toughness in fighting through arm tackles and even showed an occasional burst. When the smoke settled, he carried the rock 24 times for 122 yards — both career highs. He scored a rushing TD and added a reception for 12 yards.

The rookie, a top performer already prior to the injury, earned the respect of his coaches and even the admiration of the great Jim Brown for his heroics in fighting through the painful injury on Sunday.

And then there is Steve Smith. The Carolina version, that is. Smith had not reached the 100-yard mark since Week 2. He has scored exactly the same number of TDs on the season as I have. (That would be ZERO.) His QB, Cam Newton, has appeared to be in the midst of a serious sophomore slump.

Furthermore, the Panthers were taking on the Chicago Bears, who just happen to have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Surely not a recipe for success for Smith, right?

Well, the only thing Smith didn’t do was score a TD on Sunday (although he came VERY close). Newton showed no fear of top CB Charles Tillman, as he targeted Smith a whopping 16 times on Sunday, resulting in 7 receptions for 118 yards — easily Smith’s top fantasy performance of the year.

If we only had a crystal ball…

Every week, we post our Fantasy Heroes from the previous weekend’s games. Today I am feeling a bit ornery and would like to post a list of some of the biggest Fantasy Villains — or guys who horribly under-performed — from this past weekend.

Let’s start with a couple of quarterbacks.

Andy Dalton. Yes, we knew that he had an unfavorable match-up against the Steelers, who had a few extra days to prepare and were sure to be in a foul mood after last Thursday’s loss to the Titans. However, we did NOT expect Dalton to pass for a mere 105 yards! Dalton is becoming less and less trustworthy as a fantasy QB.

Matt Hasselbeck. Yes, he threw the game winning TD pass. Yes, he avoided the big mistakes. Yes, he engineered an offense that managed to score 35 points against the hapless Bills’ defense. Still, from a fantasy perspective, he was not especially effective. With so many key players on a bye in Week 7 (Ryan, Rivers, Peyton…) many fantasy owners plugged Hass in Sunday expecting a Sleeper-like performance— and instead got the typical 205 yards and 1 TD pass that was merely ho-hum.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger.

Now, the running backs.

Trent Richardson. The burning question all week long was whether or not Richardson would be able to suit up and play with injured ribs. By Friday it was pretty clear that he was going to play possibly with a protective jacket and that he may split carries with Montario Hardesty. I was not too worried about the shared backfield; after all, the opponent was the lowly Colts who had just allowed Shonn Greene to rush for 160 yards the week before. Also, I thought once Richardson got on the field, the adrenaline would get him through the pain. Well, Richardson managed just 20 total yards (only 8 rushing) — and was on the shelf by half time. Hardesty did little better (28 yards) subbing for him.

David Wilson. With Ahmad Bradshaw nursing a foot injury and Andre Brown less than 100%, many fantasy owners took a flier on Wilson last week as a bye-week fill-in. Wilson managed to touch the ball 4 times — all as a kick returner. He did not get a single carry or record a single reception on offense.

William Powell. Arizona has had a real problem with keeping their RBs healthy, and Powell has been no exception. However, on Sunday against a pretty decent Viking run defense, LaRod Stephens-Howling actually posted some quality numbers. Meanwhile, Powell (projected by many to be the better fantasy option) racked up just 18 yards in total offense.

Felix Jones. He was one of the hottest acquisitions off the waiver wire last week, given the injury to DeMarco Murray and the quality match-up against the Panthers. Jones was not terrible (74 total yards), but he was not the stud fill-in that many fantasy owners clamored for when they blew a sizable portion of their bid dollars to acquire him.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew

Plenty of chaff among  the WRs.

Brandon Lloyd: I was down a bit on Lloyd last week, and we even listed him as a “Sit” in our weekly Sit or Start column. But we certainly expected more than 1 catch for a mere 6 yards!

Justin Blackmon. I have to admit that I went into last week with the feeling that this just may be THE week for Blackmon to have something resembling a breakout performance. The Jags were coming off a bye, and they were facing an Oakland defense that had been very kind to fantasy WRs. Blackmon rewarded my faith in him with a single reception of just 7 yards. I know Gabbert got hurt early in the game, but still…

Dez Bryant. Speaking of breakout performances, that is exactly what Bryant had in Week 6, when he caught 13 passes, two of them for TDs. Too bad he could not follow that up with another stellar performance. The entire Dallas offense looked out of sorts against the Panthers on Sunday, and Bryant managed just 2 harmless receptions for 14 yards.

Larry Fitzgerald. Early on, it looked like Fitz was going to have a career game against his hometown team in Minnesota, as he caught 3 passes early on. However, Skelton inexplicably quit looking his direction, and he ended the game with just one more reception. The total was 4 receptions for just 29 yards. Not good.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Kenny Britt, Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace

Not a great week for tight ends.

Vernon Davis. If you started Vernon Davis (which you probably did if he is on your roster), he rewarded you with a big, fat goose egg.

Fred Davis. He managed just one catch for 13 yards before leaving the game (and the rest of the season) with a knee injury. Chris Cooley anyone?

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Scott Chandler, Jermaine Gresham, Jermichael Finley, Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta

Should I even mention kickers?

Jay Feely. Last week Feely made good on a 61-yard filed goal late in the game to tie the game and eventually force overtime against Buffalo. On Sunday against the Vikings he failed to kick a single field goal, missing the only one he attempted. He made good on two extra points, which is not exactly pay-dirt in terms of fantasy.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Blair Walsh

As we head into Week 3 in the NFL, allow me a few moments to look back and vent a little about Week 2.

Antonio Gates? The Chargers told us all that he was going to be healthy enough to start — and he wound up not getting on the field at all! Liars!

One thing that stands out to me is the under-performance of so many key fantasy studs.

For example, here were the top 10 fantasy QBs (using traditional scoring) last week:

1. Robert Griffin III
2. Eli Manning
3. Cam Newton
4. Sam Bradford
5. Andy Dalton
6. Philip Rivers
7. Michael Vick
8. Brandon Weeden
9. Ryan Tannehill
10. Andrew Luck

That is really an amazing list when you look at it. There is no Aaron Rodgers, no Tom Brady, no Matt Stafford — all of whom were first round picks in many fantasy leagues. Instead, four rookies made the list — two of whom (Tannehill and Weeden) are unowned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues.

The poor performance from Rodgers is especially troubling. Last season he was a perfect 15 for 15 (remember, he sat out the season finale in which Matt Flynn exploded) using our modest Quality Fantasy Start formula: a combination of 300 all-purpose yards and/or multiple TDs for a QB. Last Thursday’s stinker against Chicago, a team he has historically posted good numbers against, was most certainly NOT a Quality Start. Of course, Rodgers did not get much help from his receivers, especially James Jones who dropped a TD pass and ran a bad route resulting in an interception.

The RBs proved to be an interesting bunch too:

1. Reggie Bush
2. C.J. Spiller
3. Trent Richardson
4. Willis McGahee
5. Ben Tate
6. Arian Foster
7. Jackie Battle
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Andre Brown
10. Frank Gore

Three guys on the list — McGahee, Lynch and Spiller — are all former first round picks of the Buffalo Bills. In one of my leagues, I lost to a guy who “foolishly” loaded up on WRs and TEs early in his draft — but seriously neglected the RB position. The only RB of note he had was Fred Jackson, who of course went down with the knee injury last week. Fortunately, for this foe of mine — and unfortunately for me — he had the good sense to snatch up Spiller as a handcuff to FJax.

I have to admit that I was not especially high on Spiller heading into the season, as I was sure that the team would center the offense around Jackson. Through two games, Spiller is averaging over 10 yards per carry. And that is with a decent number of carries, so the average is not skewed by a single run or two. The last RB to rush for such a high YPC was the great Jim Brown — 50 years ago!

The Giants’ RB situation is puzzling. If you started Bradshaw (as I did in one of my leagues), you were expecting a good performance against the Bucs. The fact that Andre Brown rushed for close to 100 yards and a TD helps to validate that expectation; too bad Bradshaw went down so early in the game! The Bradshaw injury does not sound serious, but given that the next game is a Thursday night one, we have to expect that the Giants will err on the side of caution and sit him this week. With Brown having played so well, wonder where that leaves rookie David Wilson, who looked so good in the preseason?

Wide Receivers?

1. Hakeem Nicks
2. Victor Cruz
3. Dwayne Bowe
4. Danny Amendola
5. Vincent Jackson
6. Roddy White
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Mike Wallace
9. Reggie Wayne
10. Brandon Tate

Megatron, woher bist du? By this point last year Calvin Johnson already had 4 TDs. So far this year? Exactly the same number that my toothless puppy George has.

Instead, we have two Giants receivers at 1a and 1b, which is no great surprise given that Eli passed for 510 yards against the Bucs — much of that in the 4th quarter. However, Nicks hobbled off the field after his last catch, clutching his mending foot. Might that be a burden for him all season? And, again, the Giants do not have a lot of time to rest him in time for Thursday night’s game.

Speaking of Thursday night games… I am beginning to hate these Thursday night games. In messes with us from a fantasy perspective. Wonder if Greg Jennings would have been healthy enough to play a Sunday game, rather than being a Thursday night scratch last week? These games also introduce marital strife within the Lackner household:

Mrs. Lackner: “So what are we watching tonight?”

Me: “Football!”

Mrs. Lackner: “What?!? You mean I have to put up with it all day Sunday, Monday night and now Thursday night too?!?”

Me: “Yep. I got Aaron Rodgers going tonight against the Bears”.

You can imagine what happened next.

Last year, really for the first time, I advised fantasy owners to eschew the tried and true “2 Stud RB” strategy and focus on drafting an elite QB early. That was partly because I saw a significant drop-off in RB projections after the top 3-4. Also, I saw greater value when drafting in the top 20 to select a top 5 QB rather than the 8-12 ranked RBs.  I feel even more strongly about that this year, as I fully believe that at least 3 (and maybe as many as 5) QBs could (and SHOULD) be drafted within the top 15 picks.

I see the upper tier of fantasy QBs to be in the 5-6 range. Those players include Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Brees, Stafford, and possibly Vick. There really isn’t much that separates them. With the exception of Vick, they all have the potential to pass for over 4000 yards and 30 TDs; Vick’s rushing acumen, coupled with solid passing production, elevates his status — although his fragile physique pushes him down a notch below the other 5.  I’ve chatted with 5 different fantasy writers, and all five of them have these QBs ranked in different order.

After this top tier; however, questions begin to crop up. Rivers, Romo, Eli, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and possibly Matt Schaub will all be drafted as some fantasy owner’s  starting QB. Then there is the draft’s biggest wildcard: what to do with Peyton Manning? Each either comes with significant risk or low upside.  Fantasy owners who wait too long to address the QB position, may find themselves hoping to hit pay dirt with players like Cutler, Freeman or RG3.  If you have stocked up on the RB and WR positions, it is possible that you could make do with one of these young QBs as your starter – but all three would best serve as top drawer backups. And exactly how wise is it to stock up on RBs early this year?

Everyone wants an Arian Foster or a Ray Rice — but if you can’t get one of them, your odds of landing a decent RB in the later rounds may not be as bad as you think. Taking a close look at the RBs who finished in the top 10 in fantasy scoring last year, only six of them (Foster, Rice, MJD, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, and Michael Turner) were drafted in the first two rounds in typical 12-team fantasy leagues. While some first rounders were disappointments (Matt Forte, Frank Gore, Mendenhall), others were outright busts (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, McFadden, Ryan Grant,  etc.). Meanwhile, guys like Marshawn Lynch, Darren Sproles, and Michael Bush were taken in the later rounds (and even went undrafted) in many leagues — but out-performed many of the aforementioned RBs who were drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Here is a practical scenario:

Let’s say you are picking toward the end of the first round. Conventional wisdom would dictate that you take care of your RB situation by taking two of them with your back-to-back (or at least near back-to-back)  selections.  Assuming that you definitely go RB with one of those picks, let’s say that your choice is between the 9th ranked RB (in our case, Darren McFadden) and the 3rd ranked QB (Cam Newton per our rankings) for the other pick. The key here is to look ahead to what will likely be available with your next 2 picks. Looking at our overall rankings, that would put you in the situation of choosing between the 7th QB (Eli Manning) and the 16th RB (Michael Turner). 

Glancing at our trusted GCAM, we can see that the projected output for the #3 fantasy QB is 358.75 points, and the projected output for the #8 fantasy QB is 308 points.  That is a 50.75 point separation. Meanwhile, the #9 fantasy RB projects to score 203.75 points, and we get 171.5 points for the #16 fantasy RB. That is a difference of just 32.25 points – not nearly as significant a drop-off.  Since the name of the game is to score the most overall points each week, it makes sense that you would rather miss out on a shade over 32 points by waiting to address your 2nd RB than lose out on nearly 51 points by waiting on your top QB. To pass on a QB over a RB there would cost you nearly 20 points.

Food for thought.