One of the hardest things to do in Fantasy Football is to predict which receivers will do well in any given week. There are just so many parameters that are outside of the receiver’s control. How accurate is his QB? What sort of offensive game plan will be installed for that particular week and opponent? How effective is the opposing defense — and is the receiver likely to be locked up against an elite opposing D-Back?

There are two things that I like to look at to help formulate projections for receivers — whether we are talking about Wide Receivers, Tight Ends or even Running Backs. The first is Total Targets. This gives us an idea of how many opportunities we can expect the receiver to have. The second is Yards Per Target. That lets us know how much the receiver made of his opportunities.

Let’s start by looking at the Top 10 Targets for Wide Receivers through the first 2 Weeks. (These numbers do not count the Thursday night game which kick-started Week 3.)

1.  Victor Cruz   (28)
2.  Danny Amendola  (25)
2T. Reggie Wayne (25)
4.  A.J. Green (23)
5.  Hakeem Nicks (21)
6.  Brandon Lloyd  (21)
6T. Percy Harvin  (21)
6T. Dwayne Bowe  (21)
9.   Brandon Marshall (20)
9T. Vincent Jackson  (20)
9T. Brian Hartline   (20)

In case you are wondering, Calvin Johnson is next (or tied for 12th) with 19 targets through Week 2. Cruz and Nicks are certainly no big surprise, especially coming off Week 2’s 500+ yard passing day for the Giants. Amendola nearly broke a record for receptions in a single game against the Redskins last week, so he his presence on this list makes sense.

The names that jump out at me are Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, and Brian Hartline.

Wayne is a bit surprising because no one expect him to be so active this year. But maybe we should have. Remember, he was not terrible in 2011, despite terrible play from his bevy of QBs. Now, in Andrew Luck he has a competent young QB willing to get him the ball. Wayne was drafted in most leagues as a WR3, but he is emerging as at least a borderline WR1/WR2.

Lloyd is interesting from a different perspective. We heard all through preseason about how he and Brady were connecting almost at will in practice. However, through the first two weeks of the season the New England offense has been a bit out-of-sorts, and the perception is that Lloyd is not active enough in the passing game. The above list would seem to debunk that view. The Patriots have TRIED to get the ball to Lloyd, but they just have not been hitting on the big plays. As a result, Lloyd’s output has looked like 5 catches for 60 yards and no scores in each game.

It is worth noting that in Lloyd’s big seasons with the Broncos (and even the partial time with the Rams last year), he was one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL. In fact, he ranked right up there with the likes of Roddy White and Wes Welker in targets — but he came nowhere close to either in actual receptions. His rate of receptions per target has historically been in the 50% range. That is not great. In the past we blamed it on inaccurate QB play. However, now that he has  a very accurate Tom Brady as his QB… Not much better. Suffice to say that Lloyd looks like he will remain a boom or bust option in fantasy from week to week.

The Bears were criticized for ignoring Brandon Marshall last Thursday night. At first glance, the list above would suggest that notion to be wrong. However, note that of Marshall’s 20 targets, 15 of them came in Week 1. Now, it is unrealistic to expect him to be targeted 15 times every week, but he is also not going to slip to as few as 5 very often either as was the case in last Thursday’s debacle against the Packers. Hence, the perception that Cutler was under-targeting Marshall last week is indeed reality. Certainly, some of that had to do with how the Packers were rolling their coverages in that game. Moreover, the Packers just seem to have Jay Cutler’s number, especially at Lambeau Field.

Brian Hartline may be the biggest surprise of all. I did like him heading into the season as a Sleeper (especially in PPR leagues), but I tempered my expectations as he pretty much missed all of the preseason nursing injuries. Clearly he and Ryan Tannehill have made an immediate connection. He was targeted 8 times in Week 1 and 12 times in Week 2.

Now let’s look at Yards Per Target:

1. Steve Smith  (14)
2. Malcolm Floyd (12.5)
3. Brandon LaFell (11.92)
4. Andrew Hawkins (11.83)
5. Kevin Ogletree (11.67)
6. Hakeem Nicks (11.29)
7. Calvin Johnson (10.79)
8. Demaryius Thomas (10.44)
9. Mike Wallace (10.09)
10. DeSean Jackson (10.05)

Since we are already dealing with a small enough sample size after only 2 weeks, I decided to impose that each player have a minimum of 10 targets to qualify for the above list.

This list is actually a pretty fair evaluator in terms of fantasy status. In fact, each receiver listed above ranks among the current top 25 fantasy WRs in terms of fantasy points scored in a traditional scoring league after 2 weeks.

The two big questions, of course, are:

Was Ogletree’s Week 1 explosion a fluke?

— and —

Will Hawkins be able to sustain the success he has had the first two week?

I think LaFell is for real, and the others on this list are all established top fantasy WRs.

Let me know if this was helpful. If so, I can do a similar breakdown of Tight Ends and Running Backs.

Good luck this weekend to all!

Even with the nefarious Madden Cover jinx hanging over his head, Calvin Johnson remains the clear choice as THE #1 WR in virtually every fantasy format. But who is #2? That is one of the most common questions we have fielded in recent weeks. There is no obvious answer to that question — and certainly your league rules will help dictate the order in which the top fantasy WRs should be rated.

The way I see it, there are four strong possibilities:

1. Larry Fitzgerald. He is entering his 10th season in the league, and has been an outstanding receiver almost since the beginning. Age does not appear to be a concern for the well-conditioned Fitzgerald, and he may benefit from the addition of Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd, who should force defenses to roll coverages his way in the redzone, especially. The concern here, of course, is the QB controversy brewing in Arizona. Will it be Kevin Kolb — or John Skelton? Fitzgerald has posted quality stats in the past with less than stellar QB play (he racked up 1453 yards and 10 TDs with Kolb/Skelton last season), but if you are seriously considering drafting Fitzgerald as the #2 WR overall (which likely means an early 2nd round selection in typical 12-team leagues), you would like to have more assurance at the QB position.

2. A.J. Green. Last year the rookie made the transition from Georgia to the pros without taking a step back. He made an immediate impact — and his lethal combination of size, speed and great hands means that he should be a force in the NFL for years to come. Think Randy Moss when he has his head screwed on right. That is the kind of potential that Green has. He and fellow rookie Andy Dalton clicked instantly, and the chemistry between the two is undeniable. You always have to worry about a sophomore slump. Also, Green did have to deal with some nagging injuries down the stretch in 2011 — so you have to wonder if that will carry over into this season at all.

3. Victor Cruz. He is coming off a true breakout season (82 receptions, over 1500 yards and 9 TDs), and 2012 looks to be a contract year for him. This came after he failed to catch a single pass in 2010 — and was very nearly cut by the Giants in training camp! The loss of Steve Smith in free agency and nagging injuries to Hakeem Nicks helped to open the door for Cruz last season — and he certainly made good when given the opportunity. With Mario Manningham gone and Nicks likely to enter the season hobbled with off-season foot surgery, Eli Manning will certainly be looking Cruz’s way early and often.

4. Brandon Marshall. He just spent the last couple of seasons in the fantasy wastelands of Miami, so he may be the most surprising candidate on this list. All things considered, he was not THAT bad in Miami, despite the QB nightmare he endured: over 80 catches and 1,000+ yards each season. Of course, the trade to Chicago happily reunites him with Jay Cutler with whom he developed a fantastic connection when the two were together in Denver. Marshall had three straight seasons in which he caught 100 or more passes when he was a Bronco — so expect plenty of targets for him in 2012. Given his lack of success in the endzone, though — Marshall has only ever scored more than 6 TDs in a season twice — we only mention him as a possibility to go this high in PPR formats. Otherwise, he is more of a top 5-10 WR. For now, I am not too worried about his off-field issues, since he was never formally charged with anything and may not face any disciplinary action (at least in the way of a suspension) from the league. Still, it is a good idea to keep an eye on that situation, too.

OK, so what about the guys that I have not mentioned?

Until last season, Andre Johnson was the perennial #1 fantasy WR to come off the board. However, a collection of injuries, the flux of young WRs in the game and the Texans’ move toward a run-first style offense have caused Johnson’s stock to drop. Considering that he has never caught as any as 10 TD passes in a season, we have to look back and wonder if he may have been a bit overrated.

Wes Welker is coming off yet another 100+ catch season — 122 to be exact. In fact, 2011 marked a career year for Welker, as he reached career highs in yards, receptions and TDs. Welker has broken the century mark in 5 of his last 6 seasons, so he remains a huge factor in PPR formats no matter how you look at it. Still, the holdout (and the fact that the Patriots do not seem serious about signing him to a long term deal) worries me. What’s more, it is highly doubtful that he will match (let alone surpass) his 2011 totals — especially with Brandon Lloyd added to the roster.

I mention Jordy Nelson because he actually was the #2 fantasy WR in many formats last year when he caught 15 TD passes. Taking a closer look, though, he only caught 68 passes total — so I think it is safe to say that he over-achieved in a major way in 2011. Nelson isn’t even the top fantasy WR on his team, as I still have Greg Jennings ranked higher.

In the final analysis, I will lean on my tried and true mantra when it comes to fantasy wide receivers: They are a dime a dozen. Of the four guys I mentioned as best bets to be the #2 fantasy WR, only Fitzgerald was drafted as a #1 WR in most fantasy leagues. Cruz was a waiver wire pickup, and Green was a late-round after-thought in 2011. There will be top fantasy wide receivers this year that you will likewise be able to pick up off the scrap heap. So my best recommendation is to let someone else in your league determine who should be the 2nd (or even 3rd) WR to come off the board. I would rather aim for one of the 5 elite QBs and a stud RB with my first 2 picks in the draft — and wait until the 3rd or 4th round to consider drafting a wide receiver.